Pirate 1996 Scouting Report - Pitchers
Last Updated 14 April 1996
On Sunday January 8 1996,
Mark Jareb (mij6t@avery.med.virginia.edu) posted the
following to the Pirate e-mail
list. I have edited it and included it here with his
permission:
"Notes: when you see ###/###/###, that stands for
BA/OBP/SLG (or just OBP/SLG sometimes). I list players currently
in the organization based on the highest level they played in
'95. Whenever you see a player's age listed, that refers to what
his age will be during the '96 baseball season.
Because there are so many pitchers to do, I (Mark that is) am
doing them level by level. So here are the comments on all the
pitchers still in the Pirates organization who pitched in the
majors last year or spent the season on the DL."
Index: | Pirates
| Calgary
| Carolina
| Lynchburg
| Augusta
| Erie
| GCL
| Projections |
Pirates
Denny Neagle: He's 27 years old; he was drafted
in the 3rd round in '89 by the Twins. He was traded to the Bucs
with Midre Cummings for John Smiley. He became the Bucs #1
starter in '95. I didn't realize this until now, but Neagle
led the NL in Games Started and Innings Pitched (as well
as Hits given
up) in 1995. It was his 2nd year as a starter; he improved from
a 5.12 ERA to a 3.43 ERA. The reason: he considerably lessened
the number of walks and Extra Base Hits (XBH) that he gave up.
His BB rate went from 3.2/9 IP to 1.9/9 IP and the % of hits for
XB went from 39% to 28%. Everything about Neagle shows a good
trend and barring injury (I'm always a little concerned if a guy
threw that many IP) he should be the same or even better in '96.
I'll bet he's our opening day starter.
Esteban Loaiza: He's 24 years old; he was signed
as an undrafted free agent in '91. He has put up good-though-
not-spectacular minor league numbers each season. As a ML rookie
in 1995. he tied for the lead in Games Started. His MLB numbers
were not good (5.16 ERA), but he had enough good outings that I'm
fairly optimistic about him. Overall, he gave up 300/352/464
with a reverse split in which RHB (317/347/506) hit him harder
than LHB (279/359/409). His keys are identical to what Neagle
did in '95 -- lower the BB and XBH. He's practically guaranteed
a spot in the starting rotation for 1996.
Paul Wagner: He's 28 years old; he was drafted in
the 12th round in '89 out of Illinois State. He has had 3
straight years now where he's been in the starting rotation, but
has been demoted to the bullpen for at least part of the year.
His primary problem is his inconsistency -- though he seemed to
pitch pretty well toward the end of '95. His abysmal W-L record
of 5-16 was due more to the lack of run support (the Bucs
averaged 3.3 R/G compared to their season average of 4.4 R/G).
Many people have suggested that he go to the bullpen in the
closer role -- I don't expect that to happen considering how he
pitched when he got back into the rotation in '95. I'm
predicting he'll start the year in the rotation and stay there
throughout the year.
John Ericks: He's 28 years old; he was drafted in
the 1st round by St. Louis in '88. He was picked up by Pirates in
'93 after being released by the Cardinals due to injury. He had
incredible minor league numbers until hurting his arm in '90 --
he came back and then blew his arm out again (shoulder injury) in
'93. Since pitching in Pirates organization, he has put up very
impressive numbers in the minors again. He was in the rotation
for most of '95 with Bucs. Of the Pirates rookie pitchers in
'95, I think he has the greatest upside. He had a 4.58 ERA and a
3-8 W-L record which really belie his raw numbers. He gave up
overall 263/343/366 and his run support was 3.4 R/G. As an
example, Jim Bullinger (of the Cubs) gave up 265/346/404 with run
support of 5.5 R/G and ended up with a 4.14 ERA with a 12-8 W-L
record. This suggests that Ericks was really hurt by big
innings (plus the offense just didn't happen to score much when
he pitched). His big weakness seems to be control -- too many
walks (4.2 BB/9 IP) plus he led the team in Wild Pitches with 11.
Expect him to be in the rotation and surprise people with how
well he does. If he doesn't make the rotation, I'd make him the
closer.
Steve Parris: He's 28 years old; he was drafted
in the 5th round by Philadelphia in '89. Also picked up by the
Bucs in '94 after being released due to an arm injury. He had
OK-to-good minor league numbers with Philadelphia, and then in
'95, at Carolina, he was practically unhittable. He was promoted
to the Bucs at mid-season and started 15 Games before being shut
down toward the end of the season to rest his arm. His ERA was
5.38 and he gave up 283/361/457. Essentially not so good,
although 8 of his 15 Games Started were quality starts. He
showed a pretty extreme reverse split; LHB 243/342/393, RHB
314/378/509. He will be in the running for a spot in the
starting rotation -- if not, I think he'll still be in Pittsburgh
in the bullpen.
Jon Lieber: He's 26 years old; he was drafted by
the Royals in '92 and traded with Dan Miceli to the Bucs for Stan
Belinda in '93. His hallmark throughout his minor league career
is his extremely low BB rate. After a very promising rookie year
in '94, he was just horrible in '95 (346/376/493 in Pgh).
Essentially a sinkerball pitcher who throws strikes low in the
zone -- in '95 he was up in the strikezone and got murdered.
When he was demoted to Calgary, he still pitched badly (though
Calgary is not a place to send a pitcher to regain confidence).
He has a shot at the rotation but I think he'll start the year in
Calgary. He doesn't seem comfortable in the bullpen, so I doubt
he'll be there.
Steve Cooke: He's 26 years old; he was drafted in
the 35th round in '89 out of Southern Idaho. He spent all of '95
on the Disabled List with muscle weakness/tendinitis in his
pitching arm. He did make a couple of rehab starts (one in
Augusta, the other in Carolina), but got shut down after
experiencing pain. Supposedly, he will be healthy for the start
of spring training '96. He had a good year in '93 (though as
Ericks was unlucky in '95, raw numbers from '93 suggest Cooke was
lucky). In '94, Cooke was below average; he gave up a lot of
HRs. Though, in fairness, his '94 performance could have been
affected by his arm injury. I'd say it's probably between him
and Parris for the 5th spot in the rotation, with the other
pitcher ending up in the bullpen.
That is unless the Bucs pick up another starting pitcher. If
they don't, then give the edge in the rotation to Cooke for
having more experience and being a lefty (only one other LH in
the rotation while 2 definite LH and a couple other possibles in
the pen).
Rick White: He's 27 years old; he was drafted in
the 15th round in '90. He was slated to be in the rotation in
'95, but began the season on the DL. He worked his way into
pitching form at Calgary, then bounced between the pen and the
starting rotation when he was called up. He pitched OK, but
didn't have much stamina. Now, the arm problems have been
diagnosed as requiring surgery, so he was taken off the 40-man
roster and will most likely spend all of '96 on the DL in AAA.
Note: Bucs' GM Cam Bonifay has gone on record before that
he'd like to sign a starting pitcher in the range of $1
million/year. Here's who's out there: Jim Abbott and Ben
McDonald in the unaffordable range. Kevin Tapani in the probably
unaffordable range. Zane Smith, Terry Mulholland, Tim Belcher,
Dave Fleming, Danny Darwin, and Trevor Wilson in the affordable
but injured/badly declining range. Bill Wegman, Steve Ontiveros,
Frank Viola, Shawn Boskie, Mike Harkey, Brian Williams in the
affordable and probably worth a chance range. The thing is that
the Pirates have enough guys who fall into that range that I
don't see signing one of these guys helping much unless they're
signed to a minor league deal. In that case, we're looking at
Boskie, Harkey, or Brian Williams -- I'd probably opt for Boskie
who's actually put up good numbers in regard to R/9 IP but gives
up too many HR.
The Bull Pen
Dan Miceli: He's 25 years old; he was signed as
an undrafted free agent by the Royals in '90. He was traded with
Jon Lieber to the Bucs for Stan Belinda in '93. He won the job
as the Pirates' closer in '95.
As the stopper, he had 21 Saves, but an ERA of 4.66. His basic
problem was that while he was extremely tough on RHB
(207/275/304), LHB murdered him (363/460/626). His BB rate was
high as well. Essentially, he needs to learn how to get LHB out
or he'll quickly lose his job as the closer. I do think the Bucs
will go more with a committee bullpen, though he'll initially
probably get most of the save opportunities.
Dan Plesac: He's 34 years old; he was signed by
the Pirates as a free agent to a 2 year, $1.8 million deal before
the '95 season. He put up the best numbers of any Pirate reliever
in '95. A 3.58 ERA giving up 237/318/344 while being effective
against both RHB and LHB. I'm still not convinced that the
Pirates should be giving that much money to a old reliever, but
production-wise, he was easily worth his salary. He will be the
primary set up man in '96, and will probably see a few more
save opportunities.
Jason Christiansen: He's 26 years old; he was
signed as an undrafted free agent in '91 by the Bucs. He
established himself as the lefty set up guy; he has an
overpowering fastball and not much else. As he develops a decent
change up, he could become our closer. He had better numbers
than Miceli -- overall 234/345/373 with a slight split
(LHB:210/330/346; RHB:250/355/391). He had a high walk rate
(5.4/9 IP) but more than a 25% of his BB were intentional.
Mike Dyer: He's 29 years old; he was drafted in
the 4th round in '86 by the Twins. He was picked up as a minor
league free agent from Cleveland before the '94 season. He
pitched the most Innings of anyone in the pen in '95 -- on the
whole, he was below average with an ERA of 4.34 while giving up
281/358/427. He did pretty good against RHB 242/315/361, but was
murdered by LHB (362/444/564). He'll have to fight to keep a job
for '96 -- personally I think we have better options than him
(younger guys who could probably put up similar numbers and
improve over time). He does have the inside track on the RH set
up/long reliever spot, though.
Gary Wilson: He's 26 years old; he was drafted by
the Bucs in '92. He was a ML rookie in '95 -- he went from being
a nobody to being a prospect in '94 when he blossomed at Carolina
(he was Bucs minor league pitcher of the year). He doesn't
really have overpowering stuff, but seems to have learned how to
pitch. He really didn't get many IP with the Bucs, although he
spent a good part of the season in Pittsburgh.
Even though he posted a 5.02 ERA, he pitched decently
241/328/389. He's another guy who showed a major platoon split,
but this sample size is so small (26 PA vs LHB; 33 RHB) that it
might mean nothing. He was taken off the 40-man roster, but
he'll be a non-roster invitee to spring training. I expect he'll
start the year in Calgary - probably as a starter.
Lee Hancock: He's 29 years old; he was drafted in
the 4th round by the Mariners in '88 out of Cal-Poly San Luis
Obispo. He was traded to the Bucs for Scott Medvin in '90.
Another Left Hander, he pitched well in
his call-up at the end of the year -- well enough to be added to
the 40-man roster. He's actually pitched pretty well
throughout his minor league career, mostly as a long reliever,
and spot starter. He doesn't really have any plus pitch but gets
people out. It'll be between him and Rogers for the 3rd LH in
the pen, so my guess is that Hancock will probably go back to
Calgary (unless we keep 4 LHP in the pen).
Kevin Rogers: He's 27 years old; he was drafted
in the 9th round in '88 by the Giants. The Bucs picked up him up
off waivers in the '95 off-season. He was hurt in '94 (blood
clot in pitching arm) and never pitched for the Giants in '95
(though he did have about 15 IP in rehab appearances in San Jose
and Phoenix - A and AAA). He put up solid numbers in the minors,
always as a starter, and then was
excellent in relief for Giants in '93 as a set up man. He's
definitely worth taking a chance on, I think he'll make the
team (everything I've heard suggests he's healthy). He'll
probably will be in the pen, though the Bucs might try him as a
starter.
Ramon Morel: He's 21 years old; he signed out of
the Dominican in '91 by the Bucs. Essentially, he got a cup of
coffee in 1995 as a reward for his minor league performance,
though don't expect him back for good until either sometime later
this year or in '97. He has four pitches (fastball, curve,
slider and change) none of which stand out, but all of which can
be thrown for strikes. He'll probably start the year in Carolina
and then move up.
John Hope: He's 25 years old; he was drafted as a
supplemental pick after the 2nd round in '89 (compensation for
Dave LaPoint). Hope was plagued with arm problems throughout his
career; he started off '95 pitching phenomenally in Calgary (2.79
ERA in a hitters park in a league with average ERA of 4.72) and
then hurt himself shortly after being called up to Pittsburgh.
He was taken off the 40-man roster; I get the impression he won't
be healthy for the start of '96. When he's healthy, he'll start
back at AAA again.
Dennis Konuszewski: He's 25 years old; he was
drafted in the 7th round in '92 out of the University of
Michigan. He was called up from Carolina when rosters expanded,
and he made one appearance. A RH reliever, he was taken off the
40-man roster. He's put up OK numbers in the minors, but nothing
special. He'll be in Calgary in '96.
Calgary AAA
January 17, 1996: I (Mark Jareb) just wanted to mention that at
this point, I've projected something like 14 pitchers at Calgary,
and I haven't even discussed anyone at Carolina yet. So, some of
the pitchers I am projecting to be at Calgary will probably be
released and/or injured by the time the season starts. Also, in
these minor league reports, I am not discussing anyone who
pitched in Calgary, but is listed as a 6-year minor league free
agent.
Brett Backlund: He's 26 years old; he was drafted
by the Bucs in '92. He had a great year in his 1st pro season,
and quickly moved up to AAA. Then, he had a horrible 2nd year
where he was demoted to AA and pitched badly there as well.
Started his 3rd year at Carolina in '95, he pitched pretty well
and was promoted to Calgary where he pitched decently
(considering the league and park). He improved his K/BB and K/IP
ratios over the last 3 years. He's not considered a
top prospect, but if he pitches well at Calgary, he might get a
shot at the majors.
Mariano De Los Santos: He's 25 years old; he was
signed out of the Dominican in '89. He appeared to be
progressing nicely up to '93 and was on the 40-man roster. He
got hurt at end of '93 and simply has not been that good since.
In 1995, he began the year as a starter in Calgary and finished
as a reliever in Carolina. He must show some improvement this
year, or likely, he will be out of baseball in '97. He will
probably begin '96 in Carolina in the bullpen.
Brian Shouse: He's 27 years old; he was drafted in
the 13th round in '90 out of Bradley University. He was highly
thought of as a left-handed reliever initially (he was one of the
original 15 protected in the '92 expansion draft). However, once
he hit AAA in '93, he was just average. He was converted to a
starter in '95 and spent the majority of the season in Carolina.
He posted a low BB rate w/ K/9 IP of 5.4 but gave up too many
hits including a fair number of HR. He pitched in the Arizona
Fall League reportedly to work on his breaking ball (I get the
impression he didn't have much else besides the fastball, so the
plan was to develop his breaking stuff with as many IP as
possible). He put up decent numbers in Arizona, primarily as a
reliever (1.59 ERA though only 14K in 34IP. He is not on the
40-man roster. He'll probably be in Calgary as a starter in '96.
Kevin Rychel: He's 24 years old; he was drafted
in the 6th round in '89. His biggest problem throughout his
career has been control. 1995 was the first season, since the
Rookie League, that he was under 4.5 BB/9 IP. Primarily a
reliever since '92, he began the year at Calgary and was sent
back down to Carolina fairly early where he had
his best season ever (3.38 ERA; 60K in 51 IP). He pitched in the
Arizona Fall League and continued pitching well (2.55 ERA;
30K/13 BB in 35 IP). He'll probably be in Calgary in '96, but
does have an outside shot at the Bucs bullpen since he's Right-
Handed and pitched well in Arizona.
Matt Ryan: He's 24 years old; he was drafted in
the 25th round in '93 out of Ole Miss. Quite simply, he has put
up phenomenal numbers in the minors, typically as the
closer. An extreme groundball pitcher (GO% > 80%), his
fastball velocity only reaches the upper 80's, but he has a great
sinkerball (whose development he credits to a broken finger).
The only level he's had an ERA
above 2 was 2.33 in the Rookie League in 19 IP. The only fault
you can find with him is that his K numbers have decreased,
while his BB have increased when he's pitched at higher levels.
The one stat that makes me think he could be an ideal closer is
that in his 157 IP in the minors he has not given up a single
Home Run. Nada. Zilch. Added to the 40-man roster this year,
I think he has the best shot of any of our minor leaguers to
make the Pirates bullpen. With that said, I'm guessing
they'll go the conservative route and have him start the year in
Calgary. Calgary will be a major test (performance and
confidence-wise) since it's such a hitter's park.
Royal Thomas: He's 26 years old; he was drafted
by Philadelphia in '87. He was signed as a minor league free
agent this year from Atlanta. '95 was his first season (of 9) at
AAA. His K rate has dwindled to under 5/9 IP. If he isn't
released, essentially he'll give us some IP at AAA.
Joe Klink: He's 34 years old; he was signed as a
minor league free agent this year. He was in Buffalo in '95 --
5.02 ERA, K/BB 22/24. He'll be an old left handed insurance
policy for Calgary.
Greg Cadaret: He's 34 years old. Essentially the
same comments as Klink above -- though Cadaret is a little better
and played in Las Vegas in '95.
Scott M. Taylor: He's 29 years old; he was signed
as a minor league free agent -- he throws RH. He was a starter
at Oklahoma City (AAA American Association), but also made his
major league debut with Texas in '95. He pitched decently at
Oklahoma City (3.66 ERA, K/BB 65/38) but was really bad in his 3
Major League starts -- 9.39 ERA and 6 HR given up in
15 IP. Basically, he's insurance and was signed primarily to
give IP at Calgary. Nevertheless, he's young enough that
there's still a minuscule chance he'll develop into something
good.
Scott Taylor: He's 28 years old; he was signed to
a minor league deal in '95 and played all year at Calgary. This
Scott Taylor (as opposed to Scott M. above) throws LH. He came
from the BoSox organization -- with them, he made
it to majors in '93, but pitched badly and didn't play anywhere
in '94. Other than John Hope, Taylor put up the best numbers of
any starter in Calgary (4.11 ERA, K/BB 83/35). Considering the
PCL average ERA was 4.72 and Calgary is a hitter's park in the
PCL, those numbers are really pretty good. He will probably be
in Calgary in '96, but he's another guy with an outside shot at
seeing some action with Pittsburgh.
Carolina AA
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Lynchburg A (full season, high)
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Augusta A (full season, low)
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Erie A (short season)
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Gulf Coast (Rookie League)
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Projections:
Bucs:
Calgary:
Carolina:
Lynchburg:
Augusta:
Erie:
Gulf Coast League:
Here are a few post-spring Training comments:
Francisco Cordova: He played for the Mexico City Reds the last
three years. Here are his stats:
ERA G IP H BB SO
'93 3.23 46 106 96 47 71
'94 2.33 41 150 122 43 104 (Mexican League)
'94 1.00 22 36 32 15 31 (Mexican Winter League)
'95 3.10 27 125 131 42 88
Is there something here you like, that needs to be changed,
or would you like to see something that is not included?
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