Pirate 2000 Scouting Report

Last Updated 16 July 2000

Index: | Top Prospects | Position Analysis | Other Prospect Sites/Links | Magazine Predictions: Baseball America; Baseball Weekly |
This is the fifth year which I have worked with Mark Jareb (lshark@akula.com) on his thorough Scouting Report of the Pirates, and his detailed look at the top prospects in the farm system. His position-by- position analysis of the franchise is a highlight of the Scouting Report that shows depth or weaknesses in the Bucco farm system. Mark conducts the research and offers his opinion on the potential of each Pirate farm hand. Mark started posting these reports to the Pirate e-mail list, but I thought they deserved a wider audience. I offered to edit them and originally posted them to Glenn's Pirates Page. This year, you'll find the detailed reports on Mark's own web page. I have enjoyed working with Mark on these Scouting Reports, and I hope you enjoy reading them too.
You can still find Mark's Scouting Reports from previous years still on the web: Plus, this year, Mark has added a page for each player that combines the previous Scouting Reports. For example, you can see Jason Kendall's consolidated report on the web.
Top Prospects (Mark's Picks)
In picking the Pirates top 25 prospects, I think it is very difficult to rate batters vs. pitchers. I decided to arbitrarily pick the top 15 batters and the top 10 pitchers in the Pirate minor league organization (that's somewhat like the typical makeup of a 25-man roster). I decided to limit the Prospect listing by the rules for Rookie status, but I made exceptions for Rule V drafted players. For example, Aramis Ramirez (due to his 1999 playing time) is not noted on the Prospect list, but Emil Brown (as a former Rule V pick) is included. My criteria for rating players is based on trying to project the value of their MLB career.

Position Player Prospects:

  1. Chad Hermansen; OF
  2. Rico Washington; 3B
  3. JJ Davis; OF
  4. Emil Brown; OF
  5. Craig Wilson; C
  6. Kevin Haverbusch; 3B
  7. Garrett Long; OF/1B
  8. Humberto Cota; C
  9. J. R. House; C
  10. Eddy Furniss; 1B
  11. Tike Redman; OF
  12. Tony Alvarez;
  13. Kory DeHaan; OF (lost in the Rule 5 draft, 12/13)
  14. Ryan Doumit;
  15. Derrick Lankford; OF
    Honorable Mention: BJ Barns, Ivan Cruz, Jonathan Prieto, Jovanny Sosa, and Alex Hernandez
Pitching Prospects:
  1. Jimmy Anderson; LHP
  2. Bobby Bradley; RHP
  3. Mike Gonzalez; LHP
  4. Mike Garcia; RHP
  5. Paul Ah Yat; LHP
  6. Bronson Arroyo; RHP
  7. John Grabow; LHP
  8. Luis Torres; RHP
  9. Dave Williams; LHP
  10. Brian O'Connor; LHP
Position-by-Position Report (Mark's thoughts)
My annual Scouting Report on the Pittsburgh Pirates tries to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the organization and tries to show where the franchise is headed. The sections on position players focuses heavily on plate discipline and hitting for power. The sections on pitching tends to focus more on the pitcher's tools rather than their performance. The Pirates have done pretty well with their pitching staff, and I think it's indicative of their emphasis on tools. The Pirates GM, Cam Bonifay, comes from a scouting background, and, like most scouts, his decisions have revolved around a players' tools and their highest ceiling. I don't think it's a coincedence that his decisions regarding pitchers have tended to do well, while those regarding batters have not been nearly as successful.
This report is largely a culmination of ideas and thoughts from the Pirates email list, and thus, the members of that list need to be acknowledged first and foremost. By no means do all the members of the list give their seal of approval on what's been written, yet all the participating members have shaped the content of this report (perhaps most by those with disagreements).
This position-by-position report on the Pittsburgh Pirates organization attempts to project the level that each player will be at in 2000 and identify the extent to which a player is a prospect. In addition, it attempts to identify which positions the Pirates have needs to fill and the various possibilities to address those needs.

Notes: when you see ###/###/### that stands for BA/OBP/SLG. The ages listed for players are how old they will be on July 1, 2000. The standard information provided for each player (where available) is as follows:
Age, birthdate mm/dd/yy; how acquired (Draft Round # and year, Free Agent, NonDrafted Free Agent, Draft & Follow), High School or College
Position, Bats-Throws, Height Weight

I'll list the players currently in the organization based generally on the highest level they played in 1999 (or where they spent most of the year or where they finished). I'll include winter league stastics also (when they are available).

Other Prospect Sites/Links
You can find current stats on Pirate farm hands (in season) at various web sites. You can find links to these sites in the Minor League section of Glenn's Pirates Page. USA Today, CNN, Nando, and Pirateball are all good resources for information.

Sean Forman provides another look at Pirate Prospects.
ESPN provides a look at the minors.
The Sporting News (at Yahoo) gives their look at 5 Top Bucco prospects.
In their early December 1999 issue (on sale through Jan 9), Baseball America lists the NL Central's Top 10 Prospects.
Baseball America's Top Ten Pirate Prospects for 2000:
  1. Chad Hermansen, Outfield
  2. JJ Davis, Outfield
  3. Rico Washington, Catcher/Third Base
  4. Humberto Cota, Catcher
  5. Bobby Bradley, RHP
  6. Antonio Alverez, Third Base
  7. Luis Torres, RHP
  8. Kevin Haverbusch, Third Base
  9. Bronson Arroyo, RHP
  10. JR House, Catcher/First Base
    Rest of the Best
  11. Aron Weston, Outfield
  12. Jimmy Anderson, LHP
  13. Alex Hernandez, Outfield
  14. Tike Redman, Outfield
  15. Garrett Long, First Base
While listing the best tools in the Pirates system, Baseball America came up with this list:
Finally, here is Baseball America's prediction for the 2003 Pirate Line Up. I may disagree in a couple places, but this list starts the discusion: 1996 Baseball America Prediction
1997 Baseball America Prediction
1998 Baseball America Prediction
1999 Baseball America Prediction
After the season, Baseball America listed the Top 10 Pirate prospects for each season from 1983-2000.
Baseball Weekly (by USA Today) also weighed in with their opinion on the Bucs' top prospects. In their mid-January edition (on sale thru 1/25) they listed these top Buc prospects.
Nearly Ready: Chad Hermansen, Jimmy Anderson, Emil Brown
Up and Coming: Bobby Bradley, Humberto Cota, JJ Davis, Bronson Arroyo, John Grawbow, Rico Washington, JR House
Sleepers: Paul Ah Yat, Mike Gonzalez
An explanation of Mark's method:
One area where it gets dicey is trying to compare young prospects with little pro experience and high upside to more advanced prospects with lower upside. The more experienced the player, the more data I have to make a prediction, therefore the more confident I am in my projection. Conversely, for some young prospects (who typically have high upsides) I obviously have less data to work with, so I'm not as confident in my projections (i.e. my success rate in projecting prospects at lower levels is less than that of prospects at higher levels). So sometimes I rate someone with lower upside over a higher upside player simply because I'm more confident in the low upside player's projections. Other times, the young prospect's upside is just too great and I've convinced myself that the player's potential will be realized. Your mileage may vary.
Is there something here you like, that needs to be changed,
or would you like to see something that is not included?
Send me an
e-mail

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