Pirate 1997 Scouting Report - Pitchers

Last Updated 28 March 1997

On Saturday, 11 Jan 1997, Mark Jareb (mij6t@avery.med.virginia.edu) posted the following to the Pirate e-mail list. I have edited it and included it here with his permission:


Abbreviations are:
-CAL, Calgary, the Bucs AAA team in the
PCL, Pacific Coast League
-CAR, Carolina, the Bucs AA team in the
SOU, Southern League
-LYN, Lynchburg, the Bucs A+ team in the
CRL, Carolina League
-AUG, Augusta, the Bucs A team in the
SAL, South Atlantic League
-ERI, Erie, the Bucs A- team in the
NYP, New York-Penn League
-GCL refers to the Bucs rookie team in the Gulf Coast League
-DSL refers to the team the Bucs field in the Dominican Summer League. This team is primarily composed of teenagers from the Dominican signed as non-drafted free agents.
Index: | Pirates | Calgary | Carolina | Lynchburg | Augusta | Erie | GCL | Projections |

Pirates




Calgary AAA




Carolina AA

Jimmy Anderson: 21-1/22/76; #9 '94, Chesapeake,VA (HS)
P, L-L, 6-1 180
Anderson lasted to the 9th round in '94 because he had a scholarship to U. of Miami and was considered unsignable. His main out pitch is a slider that compliments his ~90 MPH fastball. He's moved up extremely quickly yet he's done well at every level. His K/IP has been good at all levels, though his BB rate is a little higher than I like. On the other hand, his HR totals and ERA's suggest he's groundball pitcher who doesn't give up many XBH which I do like. He'll probably start '97 in Calgary with a chance at seeing some action in Pittsburgh depending on how he pitches. Likely to be in Pittsburgh in '98.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R     10  10  56.1  35  1  27  66  1.60
95 A     24  23 129.0 107  2  52 107  2.58
   A+    10   9  52.1  56  1  21  32  4.13
96 A+    11  11  65.1  51  2  21  56  1.93
   AA    17  16  97.0  92  3  44  79  3.34

Brett Backlund: 27-12/16/69; #5 '92, U. of Iowa
P, R-R, 6-0 195
What looked to be a promising career when he was initially drafted, now looks like a career stalled at AAA. Started '96 in the Calgary rotation was demoted again to AA and ended up the year in Carolina's bullpen. If he pitches in the Pirates organization in '97, it will be his last year unless he makes it to the majors. After being moved to the bullpen in Carolina his K/IP and K/BB were impressive, but he gave up too many HR to really be called effective. Likely will be in the bullpen for Carolina or Calgary though there's a possibility his time is up already.

Blaine Beatty: 33-4/25/64; #9 '86 (BAL), Baylor U.
P, L-L, 6-2 185
He's been pitching in AA and AAA since 1987 and has only had 2 cups of coffee to show for it. Not a power pitcher so he's typically overlooked. Considering his minor league numbers over the years and that he's LH, it's very surprising he hasn't received much interest. Non-roster invitee to spring training '97, he didn't make the cut. Likely to pitch for the Mexico City Reds in '97.

Rafael Chaves: 28-11/1/68; NDFA '86(SD), Isabella,PR(HS)
P, R-R, 6-0 195
A career minor league reliever who's never pitched above AA, he's been pretty effective since joining the Bucs' organization 2 years ago. Not considered a prospect at all, he'll likely be the closer at Carolina in '97

Mariano De Los Santos: 26-7/13/70; NDFA '89, Dominican(HS)
P, R-R, 5-10 200
Dropped off the 40-man roster in '94, he resurrected his career somewhat when he moved to the bullpen late in '95. Exclusively a middle reliever in '96, his K/IP was over 1. A 6-year free agent, I think he resigned with the Bucs. Likely to be in the bullpen in Calgary in '97. Also, most likely of any unknown in the Bucs organization to pull a Marc Wilkins (and make a surprise appearance and showing with the Pirates in Pittsburgh).

Dennis Konuszewski: 26-2/4/71; #7 '92, U. of Michigan
P, R-R, 6-3 210
Primarily a reliever during his career, his numbers were quite average through '95. Got called up in September '95 -- faced 5 batters and the only out he recorded was a sacrifice bunt. Taken off the 40-man roster before the Rule V draft. In '96 he was simply bad, both at AAA and AA. Might resurface in the bullpen at Calgary but more likely to be gone.

Sean Lawrence: 26-9/2/70; #6 '92, St. Francis(IL)
P, L-L, 6-4 215
A control pitcher who strikes out batters at a decent rate. His main downfall is giving up gopherballs. Primarily a starter throughout his career, he was effective as a middle reliever in Carolina in '96. Pitched in the AFL this offseason as a starter and was less effective. Likely that he'll end up as a LH middle reliever. Expect to see him in that role in Calgary in '97.

Steve Phoenix: 29-1/31/68; NDFA '90(OAK)
P, R-R, 6-2 185
One of numerous career minor league pitchers that the Bucs have in their system. Nothing that really distinguishes Phoenix from them. If anything he's probably a little wose than most in that group. Calgary in '97 or gone to some other AAA team.

Matt Pontbriant: 25-5/20/72; #8 '91, Brevard,FL(JC)
P, L-L, 6-4 200
Switched to a reliever in '96 at AA, he's moved up pretty steadily (losing a year to injury in '93) though his numbers on the whole just haven't been that good. '96 was no exception. Could be gone as a 6-yr minor league free agent. If he stays he'll probably be in Carolina again.

Kevin Rychel: 25-9/24/71; #6 '89, Midland,TX(HS)
P, R-R, 5-9 176
Small for a pitcher, Rychel's biggest problem is his control. The last two years he had it when he was in Carolina as well as the AFL in '95 and was effective. In 2 short stints in Calgary, he didn't have it and was not effective. Hopefully he can carry that over to Calgary in '97. He was a 6-yr minor league free agent though, so he might also be with some other organization.

Scott M. Taylor: 30-10/3/66; #15 '89, U. of Kansas
P, R-R, 6-3 200
The Pirates are his 5th organization. Though he's been at AAA the previous 3 seasons, the Pirates pitched him at AA in '96. And his numbers were not that good. Yet, he was a non-roster invitee to spring training '97, though he's already been sent to the minor league camp. I see him as just a body who will take up innings. I expect he'll be doing that in Calgary in '97.


Lynchburg A (full season, high)

Todd Blyleven: 24-9/27/72; NDFA '93 (California), Villa Park,CA
P, R-R, 6-5 230
Yes, the son of Bert Blyleven, he was in the Angels organization but was let go in midseason '95 for no apparent reason (his numbers weren't that bad and he's not that old). Doesn't have the K/IP ratio you'd like but he's was pretty effective in '96 and at times before. However in 4 minor league seasons has pitched less than 15 IP above A. My guess is that he'll be in the bullpen in Carolina in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
93 R     11  11  70.0  69  3  17  49  2.60
94 A-    12   5  45.2  43  2  14  53  2.17
   A+     8   6  42.1  38  4  17  33  2.98
95 AA     8   0  14.1  13  1   3   8  5.02
   A+     6   0   8.1  12  2   5   8  4.32
   NOR   18  18 118.0 133 13  38  67  4.73
96 A     12   0  29.0  32  2  10  27  3.72
   A+    23   3  56.0  49  4  14  33  2.09 

Michael Brown: 25-11/4/71; #5 '89, Vacaville,CA(HS)
P(1B), L-L, 6-7 245
Converted from a 1B-man, this was his 1st season pitching as a pro. A big LH with a fastball in the low 90's, control is by far his biggest problem. I imagine they'll give him another year to see if he can develop as a pitcher and harness his control. Probably will be back in Lynchburg, though I wouldn't rule out starting '97 in Carolina. Time is not on his side since he only started to focus on pitching at the age of 24, hence moving up levels quickly is particularly important for Brown to have a future.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A+    34  110  69.1 91  6  52  62  7.01              

Tim Collie: 23-7/5/73; #24 '95, UNC-Charlotte
P, R-R, 5-11 185
A flyball pitcher, Collie has been a fairly effective reliever (used primarily as a closer). His K/IP isn't great, but he doesn't walk many (4 of the 10 BB at A+ were intentional). I think he may have problems with HR and XBH as he moves up the ladder. We'll see. Probably will start '97 in Lynchburg with a midseason promotion to Carolina likely.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 NCAA  17  na 125.0 102 na  21 102  2.94
95 A-    29   0  36.0  32  1   9  27  2.00
96 A     24   0  29.2  28  1   4  20  2.12
   A+    24   0  25.0  26  2  10  14  3.60              

Chris Corn: 25-10/4/71; #21 '94 (NYY), U. of Kansas
P, R-R, 6-2 170
Acquired from the Yankees in exchange for Charlie Hayes. He has a wicked curve that compliments an average fastball. After moving up a level and being converted to a starter his K/IP tumbled though his BB rate was even lower. He seemed to tire toward the end of '96 as he threw more innings than ever before. Pitched in relief for Carolina during the playoffs, though not very well. Will start '97 in the rotation at Carolina.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 NCAA  16  na 108.0 108 na  49  76  4.42
94 A-    21   2  50.2  49  4  19  51  3.73
95 A     49   0  82.0  54  3  22 101  1.76
   A+     4   0   5.2   3  0   3   9  3.18
96 A+    26  25 170.1 145 10  38 109  2.91              

Kane Davis: 22-6/25/75; #13 '93, Reedy,WV(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 180
Added to the 40-man roster this winter as well as rated the #9 overall prospect of the Bucs in '95 by Baseball America. Scouts say he has 3 above average pitches: a low 90's fastball, a hard slider, and a straight change. On the other hand, his performance thus far doesn't scream out top prospect -- he's put up decent numbers but his K/IP ratio has only been average. His performance in Carolina in '97, IMO will be particularly telling as to his future.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
93 R     11   4  28.0  34     19  24  7.07
94 A-    15  15  98.1  90  4  32  74  2.65
95 A     26  25 139.1 136  4  43  78  3.75
96 A+    26  26 157.1 160 12  56 116  4.29              

John Dillinger: 23-8/28/73; #20 '92, Manatee,FL(JC)
P, R-R, 6-6 230
A native of Connellsville and a big Bucco fan all his life, Dillinger was added to the 40-man roster this season much to my surprise at the time. The key reason for his stock rising so rapidly was his excellent performance at Lynchburg once he was moved from the pen into the rotation. In his final 14 starts, he put up a 2.27 ERA in 95.1 IP giving up just 62 hits while walking 29 and K'ing 79. Dillinger's best pitches are his fastball and slider which seem to be quite effective when they're around the strike zone -- his BB rate in the last half of '96 was vastly better than any previous season. He'll start '97 in the rotation at Carolina.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
92 R     13  10  52.0  43 na  42  45  3.44
93 R*    15  15  80.0  65 na  60  94  3.92
94 A     23  22 119.2 107  5  54 118  4.29
95 A+    27  22 123.0 111 10  67  97  4.02
96 A+    33  15 132.1 101 11  58 113  3.74
* --> played for Lethbridge, a co-op team, in the Pioneer League

Aaron France: 23-4/17/74; #3 '94, Cypress,FL(JC)
P, L-R, 6-3 175
Put up extremely good numbers his first 2 seasons in Welland and Augusta. Promoted to Lynchburg in '96 and pitched pretty poorly there, though he spent part of the year on the DL. Pitched at Augusta at the end of the year when he was healthy and put up very good numbers again. France has a live arm and it strikes me that arm problems had more to do with his struggles versus moving up a level. Should begin '97 in Lynchburg again, though he may not be in the rotation simply due to a logjam of quality pitchers. Likely the first candidate to replace anyone in the rotation at Lynchburg who's struggling.

Jason Johnson: 23-10/27/73; NDFA '92, Burlington, KY
P, R-R, 6-6 220
Third consecutive year that he's pitched part of the season in Augusta which is not a good sign. At times, he has put up good K/IP numbers, but pitched really poorly in Lynchburg to start '96. One possibility for the bad numbers was that'96 was the his first season in the bullpen. When he was sent back down to Augusta, he pitched well as a starter. If he's still with the Pirates, he's likely in the bullpen in Lynchburg where he must do well or he'll be gone by '98. Almost needs to pitch well enough to get called up to Carolina if he's going to have MLB ever in his future.

Jeff Kelly: 22-1/11/75; #15 '94, Staten Island,NY(HS)
P, L-L, 6-6 215
Added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Kelly inexplicably started '96 in Augusta after putting together a very good season there in '95 (had a little bit better numbers than Kane Davis that year). Pitched well again and got promoted to Lynchburg midseason where he put up good numbers (again fairly similar to Davis' numbers in '96 at Lynchburg). Just as likely to start '97 in Carolina as Lynchburg.

John Kelly: 24-12/13/72; #11 '94(Mets), U. of Connecticut
P, R-R, 6-0 180
Acquired from the Mets in '96 in a trade for Jon Farrell. He didn't pitch much in '96 for Lynchburg (and pitched even less in the Mets organization) so I'm assuming he was injured for the first half of '96. Pitched in the Hawaii Winter league in '96 to get some innings and pitched OK -- a good K/IP and K/BB though a high ERA. Overall, he's put up pretty good numbers throughout his minor league career, but he's a tad old for the levels at which he's played. Also, he's small as pitchers go, so he's unlikely to get the benefit of the doubt. He'll be in the bullpen either at Carolina or Lynchburg to start '97, though it's also a possibility that he won't be anywhere.

Jeff Martin: 23-1/25/74; #8 '95(KC), Las Vegas,NV(HS)
P, R-R, 6-1 200
Acquired in the King/Bell trade with Kansas City, he perhaps could be the gem of that trade. There's some question surrounding his age, but it's a definite that he pitched in high school in '95 so I think he will be 20 years old in '97 (or he was age 21 when drafted out of high school). Part of the confusion is that he has the command of a more experienced pitcher. He throws four different pitches with decent velocity and movement but his control and knowledge of when to use them belies his age. Started '96 in Wilmington before shoulder tendinitis shut him down most of the year. Rebounded to pitch extremely well in the Hawaii Winter League. Probably will start the year in the rotation in Lynchburg, though Carolina at some point in '97 is likely.

Rick Paugh: 25-2/6/72; #45 '94, Marshall U.(WV)
P, L-L, 6-1 190
A LH set-up reliever throughout his career, his K/IP and K/BB have been good at every level, though they've declined slightly as he's moved up. His possible MLB future is that of a LH specialty reliever. Considering his age, his '97 in Carolina will be a make or break year in determining if he has a MLB future at all.

Jason Phillips: 23-3/2/74; #14 '92, Muncy,PA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-6 215
A fairly big guy who's a hard thrower, control is his biggest nemesis. '96 was his 3rd year at Augusta and he finally harnessed his control to get a promotion to Lynchburg midseason where he pitched decently. Probably will start '97 in the rotation at Lynchburg, though he strikes me as the type of pitcher who may get moved to the bullpen.

Kevin Pickford: 22-3/12/75; #2 '93, Clovis,CA(HS)
P, L-L, 6-3 200
A 2nd round pick as compensation for Drabek's signing with Houston, Pickford has progressed fairly well so far. He has excellent control, but his K/IP is low. Because of this, he tends to give up a lot of hits, though his ERA stays relatively low because few are for extra bases. Since, he's been proomoted at a fairly aggressive pace, I'd expect to see him in the rotation at Carolina in '97.

Matt Spade: 24-12/4/72; #28 '94, Marshall U.
P, R-R, 6-4 180
A native of Boyertown, PA, Spade has been a teammate of LH setup reliever Rick Paugh at every level and in college. He's been the primary RH setup reliever the past 2 years and has been very effective in that role. Has put up very good K/IP and K/BB numbers as well as a low ERA each season. Will be the primary set up RH reliever in Carolina in '97.

Matt Williams: 26-4/12/71; #4 '92 (CLE), Va. Commonwealth U.
P, B-L, 6-0 170
Throughout his career, he's either lacked control or given up the long ball, leading to the Pirates being his 3rd organization. Since '94 he's given up 44 HR in about 300 IP which is extremely high for A ball. Though he had a very good K/IP in '96, his career is probably over.



Augusta A (full season, low)

Bronson Arroyo: 20-2/24/77; #3 '95, Brooksville,FL(HS)
P, R-R, 6-5 165
Lanky and athletic, Arroyo has a pretty good fastball coupled with very good control. As he'll likely fill out his frame over the next couple of years, it wouldn't be surprising to see him add a little velocity to his pitches. He projects well at this point, but we only have 2 years of performance with which to evaluate. He'll start '97 in Lynchburg; it's more of a hitter's park and league than he's faced in the past. It should be a good test for him.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R     13   9  61.1  72  4   9  48  4.26
96 A     26  26 135.2 123 11  36 107  3.52          

Mike Ayers: 23-12/23/73; NDFA '96, Cincinnati,OH(?)
P, L-L, 5-10 190
A relatively short, stocky LH, I have absolutely no idea where he came from. Pitched decently in relief with an pretty good K/IP and K/BB ratio. Probably earned himself a promotion to Lynchburg in '97, though his age, ERA and the fact that Augusta is a strong pitcher's park might mean he's history.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A     27   0  30.1  33  1   8  31  4.15

Derek Bullock: 24-2/24/73; #20 '95, Briar Cliff (IA)
P, R-R, 6-2 186
From the same college as Reed Secrist, Bullock spent the first part of the year on the DL. Once he started pitching, he was quite impressive. Old for the level he's been playing, still he's had the best ERA of any starter on the teams he played for thus far. He'll probably find his way into the starting rotation in Lynchburg sometime in '97 but simply due to the numbers game, he'll probably start the year in the pen.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 A-    11  11  65.0  65  0  15  27  2.35
96 A     14   8  60.2  55  1  16  52  2.08

Jason Farrow: 23-7/30/73; #27 '95, U. of Houston
P, R-R, 6-2 195
A closer in college, he's been used primarily as a set-up reliever thus far. He's been very effective in that role with a K/IP ratio over 1 in both '95 and '96. Looks to continue in that role for Lynchburg in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 NCAA  27  na  48.0  36 na  22  40  3.59
   A-    20   4  48.1  44  0  20  50  2.23
96 A     46   0  77.1  61  3  34  81  2.09           

Jeff Havens: 24-3/5/73; #12 '94 (ChiN), San Jacinto(JC)
P, R-R, 6-1 185
Apparently released by the Cubs in '94, Havens resurfaced in Augusta in '96. Pitched OK. Roughly the same probability of being in Lynchburg as Ayers -- probably but not a definite.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 A-     4   0   6.1  12  0   2   2 11.37
95              DNP
96 A     34   1  44.1  51  2  12  43  3.65           

Elvin Hernandez: 19-8/20/77; NDFA '94, Dominican(HS)
P, R-R, 6-1 165
Hernandez quite simply has excelled at every level he's pitched, and he's almost always been one of, if not, the youngest pitcher in the league. Still filling out his frame it's likely he'll add velocity over the next couple of years and his fastball, though not particularly hard is already pretty good. His best asset is his command of offspeed and breaking pitches which translates into his low walk totals with many strikeouts. Basically his K/IP and K/BB are excellent. I thought he'd be in Lynchburg in '97 but the reports are saying that the Bucs plan to bump him up to AA Carolina.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 DSL   11  11  70.0  62 na  13  68  2.70
95 A-    14  14  90.1  82  8  22  54  2.89
96 A     27  27 157.2 140 13  16 171  3.14
   DOM    6   0  18.1   7  0   8  10  1.47

Joe Maskivish: 25-8/14/71; #37 '94, West Liberty St. (PA)
P, R-R, 6-4 180
A true submariner, Maskivish made a splash in '95 setting Augusta's save record by the All-Star break. Shortly thereafter though, he hurt his arm and was done for the season. Started '96 in Lynchburg, wasn't too effective and was sent back down to Augusta where he pitched well. Although his numbers are good, he's old for his level and his style suggests he won't be effective at higher levels. Still, you never know. Will be in Lynchburg in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 A-    28   0  28.0  19  0  10  27  1.93
95 A     26   0  29.2  23  0   9  33  2.12
96 A+    12   0  10.2  17  1   5  10  6.75
   A     50   0  50.0  46  0  14  58  2.16           

Craig Mattson: 23-11/25/73; #14 '94, Triton,IL(JC)
P, R-R, 6-4 205
Be-set with injury problems the last couple of years, Mattson has looked OK when he was healthy enough to pitch. Probably will start '97 in the pen in Lynchburg, but it all depends on his health.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
93 A-    18   0  30.0  25 na   5  32  2.12
94 A     54   0  70.0  65  3  30  78  3.60
95 A+    11   0  11.2  11  1   0   5  3.09
96 R      1   0   1.0   0  0   0   0  0.00
   A     18   0  25.1  19  2   7  18  1.93
   A+     6   0   7.0  10  3   5   4  7.71          

Brian O'Connor: 20-1/4/77; #11 '95, Redding,OH(HS)
P, L-L, 6-2 175
His best pitch is a biting curveball that he compliments with a pretty decent fastball (mid-to-upper 80's). He also throws a slider and change. Had excellent numbers in '95 in the GCL and the first half of the year in Augusta primarily as a reliever. Sent to Erie to get more innings in as a starter and for whatever reason he had problems with control which led to somewhat poor numbers at Erie. One reason for the control problems was that he was trying to pitch to finely. Even with the downturn in performance at Erie he still kept his K/IP nearly at 1. As long as he doesn't have control problems, he's an excellent pitcher and there's no reason to think that they'll persist. I'm guessing he'll start the year in the rotation at Augusta, though beginning the year at Lynchburg is a definite possibility.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R     14   5  43.0  33  1  13  43  1.88
96 A     19   0  35.1  33  2   8  37  3.06
   A-    15  15  67.2  76  4  47  60  5.85

Jose Reyes: 24-5/1/73; NDFA '93, Dominican Republic
P, R-R, 6-1 188
He pitched poorly in a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. There is a great probability that he won't be back in the organization.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 A-    19   7  58.1  53  2  29  44  3.39
96 A     23   8  67.0  79  8  30  57  6.18

Carl South: 22-4/14/75; #23 '93 (Los Angeles), Marietta,GA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-5 210
Acquired from LA in exchange for Dave Clark, Carl South appears to have broken out in '96. He has an above average fastball but had major control problems as well as a penchant for giving up XBH his first couple of seasons. He started '96 as a reliever and was pitching quite poorly. He was placed in Savannah's (LA affiliate in the SAL) rotation about midseason and excelled from that point -- as a starter he had 64 IP giving up 43 H and 26 BB while K'ing 59 with a 2.25 ERA. He'll be in the starting rotation at Lynchburg next season.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R     15   6  42.0  53  3  35  32  8.14
95 A-    13  10  55.2  72  4  19  30  6.14
96 A     34  11 102.0  90  8  44  93  4.06          

Randy Viegas: 21-8/22/75; #7 '94, Roseville, CA (HS)
P, L-L, 6-2 175
A LHP with a decent arm, he's running out of time to show his potential. Control problems have really hurt him. Whether he's in the minors in '97 is really dependent on how he pitches in the instructional league and spring training. He'll probably be back in Augusta to start '97 if he's back at all.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R     12  11  67.2  55  6  31  44  4.12
95 R      6   4  28.1  28  0   5  24  2.54
   A-     8   1  10.0  14  0   9   9  6.30
96 A-     2   0   3.2   4  0   4   3  7.36
   A     13   0  18.2  16  0  14  15  6.27

Jeff Wallace: 21-4/12/76; #25 '95(KC), Minerva,OH(HS)
P, L-L, 6-2 237
A big left hander acquired in the trade with KC involving King and Bell. He has a live arm that dominated the GCL in '95. '96 in the Midwest League was different story where lack of control seemed to get the better of him. Though he's started a fair amount and will likely be a starter next season, his future is probably in relief. Probably in the rotation in Lynchburg in '97, though it's possible that he'll start the year in Augusta.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R     12   7  44.0  28  0  15  51  1.23
96 A     30  21 122.1 140 10  66  84  5.30

Danny Young: 25-11/3/71; NDFA '91 (Houston), Woodbury,TN
P, R-L, 6-5 180
The Bucs somehow picked him up from the Astros in the offseason in '93. He has pitched at least part of the season in the SAL for 5 seasons now. Yes, he's big LHP who throws hard, but he can't find the strike zone. He's gotten a lot of chances, but this is a little ridiculous. He should be out of the Bucs' organization to give somebody else a chance.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
91 R     13   7  33.0  32 na  39  41  7.99
92 A     20  20  95.0 106 na  70  64  4.28
93 A     32  24 143.0 174 na  95 101  6.12
94 A+    10   0  18.2  32  2   9  12  7.71
   A     21   9  66.2  58  2  33  73  3.38
95 A      6   2  14.1   9  0  16  11  2.51
   A+    24   2  41.1  52  3  27  34  7.40
96 A     22   1  33.2  36  1  29  36  5.88

Ryan Young: 24-6/16/73; NDFA '95, Charlotte, NC
P, R-R, 6-0 175
Though he got a lot of starts the last couple of years, he doesn't project well at all. Low K rate, yet gives up a fair number of HR. He'll probably be out of the organization.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 A-    16  10  67.2  62  5  17  38  2.79
96 A     21  18  96.0 117  8  32  48  5.72


Erie A (short season)

Paul Ah Yat: 23-10/13/73; #21 '96, U. of Hawaii
P, R-L, 6-1 196
Full name is Paul Anthony Papalekaimana Ah Yat. More of a starter in his last year at Hawaii, he was an OK college pitcher. Sent straight to Erie and was effective as a LH set-up man. Not really considered a prospect but his K/IP and K/BB suggest that he's worth keeping an eye on. Probably in Augusta in '97 with a callup to Lynchburg a definite possibility.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 NCAA  21   5  59.2  61 na  42  38  4.53
95 NCAA  16   6  60.1  71 na  22  45  4.92
96 NCAA  19  na 112.0 122 na  37  87  4.66
96 A-    26   0  27.2  24  1   6  34  3.25               

Jose Luis Avila: 22-3/4/75; NDFA '94, Venezuela
P, R-R, 6-2 195 (or 5-7 200)
He put up a solid year at Erie with a nice K/IP. Good enough stuff to pitch as a reliever in Venezuela Winter Leagues as well. He's on the roster for his Winter league team, though, he's listed at 5-7 200 as opposed to the 6-2 195 in Baseball America's Almanac. Looks to be in the rotation in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-     14 14  78.0  75  4  33  74  4.04
96 VEN    10  0  17.2  13  0  12   8  1.53

Scott Beach: 23-10/18/73; #42 '95, Pittsburg St.(KAN)
P, R-R, 6-4 175
His biggest problem is his control and though he had a good ERA in Erie in '96, he doesn't look like he overcame it. I'm guessing he has decent velocity and that's about it. He could be in the pen in Augusta in '97 though it's just as possible that he's out of baseball.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 A-    14   0  18.0  24  3  17   8  7.50
96 R      7   0   7.2  16  0   3   4 10.57
   A-    17   0  22.0  16  0  14  25  1.64

Wyatt Brooks: 23-12/13/73; #30 '96, U. of North Florida
P, R-L, 6-1 165
Similar to Ah Yat, in that he's an older college pitcher who was effective as a LH set-up man in Erie. Probably in Augusta in '97 as well.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-    15   0  23.1  20  1   7  24  1.54               

Tedde Campbell: 24-7/2/72; NDFA '95, Blairsville,PA
P, R-R, 6-0 190
Signed as a replacement player in '95, though he didn't see any action in the Bucs organization until '96. From somewhat near my hometown, he was one of the closers at Erie. Has a fastball in the low 90's. Likely to be in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-    27  0   32.1  24  2  16  30  3.34               

Michael Chaney: 22-10/3/74; #16 '96, Bowling Green(KY)
P, L-L, 6-3 200
An occasional emergency starter for Erie in '96 (Bucs have fairly strict limits on how often/much pitchers could pitch, so there were games where "starters" were scheduled to pitch only 2 or 3 innings), his performance was the worst of the other LHP in Erie. He might be in Augusta in '97, or he might be gone.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 NCAA  15  11  59.0  56  5  21  48  2.75
96 A-    10   5  29.0  27  1  14  21  5.28               

David Daniels: 23-7/25/73; NDFA '95
P, R-R, 6-2 185
Like Campbell, he was signed as a replacement player. He started the season in Augusta and then was sent to Erie where he was the closer. Excellent control; of his 8 BB in '96, 4 were intentional. He'll be in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A     11   0  12.1  21  0   3  14  5.11
96 A-    31   0  36.1  33  3   5  45  2.72               

George Elmore: 23-5/13/74; #18 '96, Lucama,NC
P, R-R, 6-5 245
A big guy who must have caught someone's eye in a semi-pro league, as he didn't seem to be drafted out of any college. He probably throws hard, but has control problems. He may be in Augusta in '97, but probably more likely will be out of baseball.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-    19   0  32.0  38  1  21  17  4.78               

Luis Gonzalez: 23-5/3/74; #22 '96, U. of New Mexico
P, R-R, 6-2 190
Decent K/BB rate, but he gives up too many hits; overall, a poor performance in '96. More likely to be out of baseball rather than in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 NCAA  15  na 108.0 127 na  40  94  5.00
96 A-    21   1  25.1  32  2   6  19  5.68               

Jason Haynie: 23-3/29/74; #11 '96, U. of South Carolina
P, L-L, 6-0 190
Haynie throws 3 pitches pretty well, including a fastball in the upper 80's. He had good numbers in his senior year playing in the strong SEC. He put up a good K/IP and K/BB at Erie as well. Should be in the rotation in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 NCAA  17  na 108.0 108 na  39  86  3.43
96 A-    16  12  80.1  86  2  22  74  3.25

Neal McDade: 21-6/16/76; #29 '95 (D&F), Florida CC
P, R-R, 6-3 165
A draft and follow from '95, McDade was the ace of the staff in Erie. Because Lynchburg played 5 games in 3 days to end the season and had a shot at the playoffs, McDade was sent up to Lynchburg to pitch in a DH the last day of the season. Though, he wasn't too effective, it's telling that the Bucs thought pretty highly of him. He will be in the rotation in Augusta to start '97 but could move up.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-    13  13  76.2  76  3  21  67  3.40
   A+     1   1   5.0   6  1   1   2  9.00               

Rafael Santos: 21-10/24/75; NDFA '93, Dominican(HS)
P, R-R, 6-2 185
Has spent 3 seasons now in short-season ball. Not a good sign, but he probably pitched well enough to have a shot in the bullpen in Augusta in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R     17   0  20.0  12  0  11  11  0.45
95 R     11  10  51.1  63  1  27  26  6.31
   A-     2   0   1.0   0  0   2   1  0.00
96 A-    18   4  54.2  55  5  19  32  3.79               

Jess Siciliano: 20-8/31/76; #9 '96, Rockland(NY) CC
P, R-R, 6-2 190
Probably a hard thrower with control problems who needs help with his mechanics. Depending on how he did in winter instructional league, he will either be in the pen in Erie or out of baseball.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 A-     4   0   5.1   7  0   4   4   6.75
   R      3   0   5.0   4  0   2   1   3.60               

Maximo Villar: 20-10/11/76; NDFA '94, Dominican(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 175
Must have shown something at some point to have warranted getting innings as a starter. Yet, his performance is suggestive that he won't be playing in the Pirates organization in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R      6   3  20.0  29  2   9  13  7.20
96 A-     9   9  28.2  46  3   9  10  7.22               

Gulf Coast (Rookie League)

Carlos Alvarado: 19-1/24/78; NDFA '95, Arecibo,PR(HS)
P, R-R, 6-4 195
Good size, good K/IP ratio and quite young having first appeared in the GCL at age 17. He'll probably be in the bullpen in Erie in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R      2   0   3.0   1  0   5   2  6.00
96 R     11   1  27.1  32  1  10  31  4.94

David Alvarado: 19-4/29/78; NDFA '95, Venezuela(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 170
I can literally write the exact same thing as I did for the other Alvarado (and I will). Good size, good K/IP ratio and quite young having first appeared in the GCL at age 17. He'll probably be in the bullpen in Erie in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R      9   2  15.0  15  1   4  15  4.80
96 R      1   0   4.0   0  0   1   8  0.00

Franklin Bravo: 18-12/24/78; NDFA '96, Dominican(HS)
P, R-R, 6-2 170
Signed out of the Dominican at age 17, but the Bucs decided to play him in the GCL rather than the DSL. Not that great of a K/IP ratio but everything else looked very good. Considering he gave up on average 1 hit/IP yet had a 2.32 ERA, my guess is that he's a sinkerball pitcher with good control. If he adds some velocity, which is likely since he'll be 18 in '97, he could become very good given his command. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Augusta to start '97 but it's just as likely that, because of his age, the Bucs may bring him along slowly and have him pitch only in Erie next year.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      11 11  62.0  62  1  10  36  2.32

Ender Classen: 19-4/1/78; #29 '96, Arecibo,PR(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 185
When he was drafted out of Puerto Rico, he was listed as a SS. I'm assuming the Bucs looked at his arm (probably even before they drafted him) and thought that he had a better future as a Pitcher. Since it's likely that he doesn't have much pitching experience, I'm guessing that he'll be back in the GCL to start '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      7   0   7.2  12  0   3   6  4.70

O.J. Cook: 20-12/13/76; #6 '95, Bethlehem,PA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 195
Yes, his first name stands for Orenthal James. 1996 was his 2nd year in the GCL; my guess is that it was mostly to work on his control and mechanics plus to learn another pitch besides his fastball. His fastball can reach 90+ MPH already. Likely to be in Augusta in '97, though I wouldn't expect sparkling numbers for him at that level.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R     12   7  34.2  33  1  22  25  3.63
96 R     11   6  50.2  43  4  19  36  3.55

Cordell Dunn: 21-11/3/75; #12 '94, Tunica,MS(HS)
P, R-R, 6-2 185
Pitched a little in Augusta before coming back to the GCL for the 3rd straight year. A great probablility that he won't be in the Bucs organization in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R     11   1  22.2  22  0  19   4  5.96
95 R      5   0  10.0  13  0   4   5  5.40
96 A      3   3  10.2  14  1   9   7 12.66
   R      7   6  28.0  32  1  14  24  5.46            

Ricardo Finol: 23-5/10/74; #46 '96, Navarro,TX(JC)
P, B-R, 6-0 170
A native of Venezuela, he's on the old side for being drafted out of Junior College. His numbers weren't particularly impressive in the GCL either. For some reason, I think the Bucs will give him another chance, this time in the pen in Erie.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      6   0  10.0  19  1   5   9  9.00
   VEN    2   0   3.2   2  0   1   0  2.45

Travis Gaerte: 20-10/21/76; #14 '95, Fremont,IN(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 180
He pitched well in his second stint in the GCL. He was used as a closer at times; he probably has pretty good velocity, but is raw and doesn't always have the best control. Probably in Erie in '97 but perhaps in Augusta.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R      6   0  12.0  14  2   2   5  6.00
96 R     14   0  30.0  17  0  18  24  2.40

Ryan Gillispie: 20-3/29/77; #18 '95, San Diego,CA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-6 200
His lack of appearances the last 2 seasons don't bode well for his future. However, I'm almost sure that I saw him listed on Augusta's roster to start '96, but he was on the DL. I give him a 50/50 chance of being gone or pitching in Erie in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R      4   0   7.1   8  0   6   4  2.45
96 R      1   0   3.0   4  0   0   5  0.00

Roger Goedde: 21-5/19/76; #2 '94, Evansville,IN(HS)
P, R-R, 6-4 180
Something horribly wrong happened with Goedde in Erie in '95. I do think he was on the DL to start '96 -- an injury that probably happened early in his time at Erie. To give you a sense of how off he was there, in addition to the 17 BB in 20.1 IP he had 13 WP. Looked promising at first but I suspect he's done in the Pirates organization.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
94 R      9   9  47.1  41  0  19  35  2.09
95 R      6   6  31.0  31  0   7  25  2.61
   A-     5   5  20.1  31  1  17   8  7.97
96 R     12   3  28.2  45  2  11  23  9.10

Michael Gresko: 20-10/27/76; #25 '96, Mercer County,NJ(CC)
P, L-L, 6-8 200
If he wasn't a lefty who was 6-8, I'd say that he's likely gone. But he is a big lefty, so I bet that he gets another shot probably at Erie in '97. Control or lack thereof will determine how far he moves up.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      5   0   6.0   3  1   5   7  3.00

Keith Heberling: 24-9/21/72; #46 '92 (D&F NYY), Indian River,FL(JC)
P, L-L, 6-3 200
Traded by the Yankees to the White Sox in exchange for Jack McDowell during the '94 off-season, he blew out his arm in spring training and didn't pitch at all in '95. The Bucs picked him up from the ChiSox in the minor league portion of the Rule V draft in December '95 knowing he'd be rehabbing all of '96. Bonifay has a penchant for picking up guys like this (eg. Ericks and Parris) and the strategy has been pretty successful thus far. Likely to start the year in Lynchburg pitching long/middle relief to build up arm strength. His progress will be very interesting to watch.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
93 A-     4   3  27.1  20  0   8  27  0.90
   A     11  11  69.2  47  3  18  74  2.07
94 A+    22  22 138.2 149  7  37 121  2.92
   AA     6   6  35.0  44  3   6  21  5.66
95       injured -- DNP
96 R      1   0   1.0   0  0   0   1  0.00

George Hlodan: 21-6/25/76; #28 '95 (D&F), Elizabeth,PA(JC?)
P, R-R, 6-0 170
He pitched well, though not enough K's/IP. A good bet to be in Erie in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      7   6  27.0  29  0   7  15  2.67

Andrew Hohenstein: 19-9/27/77; #7 '96, Riverside,CA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-4 210
A big kid, who's pretty raw. Likely will be in the GCL again in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      7   5  26.1  36  1  12  18  3.08

Andy Prater: 19-9/27/77; #2 '96, Florrisant,MO(HS)
P, R-R, 6-3 175
A surprise 2nd round pick in the '96 draft, Prater at this point has only a decent fastball but with very good command. The Pirates project that he'll add velocity in the next two years. That coupled with his command could make for a dominating pitcher. Definitely had a good season in the GCL. Will start '97 in the rotation at Augusta.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 HS    na  na  56.0  36 na  16  85  1.76
96 R     12  12  68.0  63  3  11  53  3.18

Brian Settle: 19-7/17/77; #13 '95, Portsmouth,VA(HS)
P, R-R, 6-5 190
He just can't seem to find the strike zone. Highly likely that he'll not be in the organization in '97.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
95 R     11   0  20.2  25  4  20  11  8.27
96 R      7   0  11.1   5  0  14  13  7.94

Daniel Tobias: 21-8/20/75; #26 '96, Oregon,OH(?)
P, R-R, 6-5 200
50/50 chance of being in Augusta in '97 or out of the organization. The one thing in his favor is that he's a big guy, the big negative is his age coupled with lack of experience.
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R      5   0   5.2   4  0   4   4  1.59

Bobby Vogt: 18-10/19/78; #8 '96, Tampa,FL(HS)
P, L-L, 6-6 200
He looks very promising. He put up very good numbers, and he was the second pitcher on the team. A big LH with a good arm that projects to be better as he gets a little older. My guess is that he starts the year in the bullpen in Augusta and might get sent to Erie to start later in the year (like Brian O'Connor in '96).
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R     13   5  42.2  36  2  19  46  2.95

Jason Wright: 21-8/28/75; #41 '95, Palomar,CA(JC)
P, R-R, 6-4 230
Was the primary closer in the GCL and was quite effective. He's a big guy, so he's probably a flamethrower. Likely to be in the pen in Augusta in '97 (probably as the closer there).
          G  GS    IP   H HR  BB   K   ERA
96 R     13   0   20.1 13  1   6  25  1.33


Projections:

Bucs:

Calgary:

Carolina:
Starters: Corn, K. Davis, Dillinger, E. Hernandez, Pickford
Bullpen: Backlund, Blyleven, M. Brown, Chaves, Paugh, Spade

Lynchburg:
Starters: Arroyo, Bullock, Jeff Kelly, Martin, South
Bullpen: Collie, Farrow, France, Heberling, Maskivish, Mattson, Phillips and Wallace

Augusta:
Starters: Avila, Haynie, McDade, O'Connor, Prater
Bullpen: Ah Yat, Bravo, Brooks, Campbell, Cook, Daniels, Gaerte, Santos, Vogt, Wright

Erie:
Starters: Bravo, Vogt
Bullpen: C. Alvarado, D. Alvarado, Finol, Gresko, Hlodan

Gulf Coast League:
Classen, Hohenstein


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