1997 Pirate Preview

Last Updated 12 April 1997

Lots of fans ask me, "how do you think the Pirates will do in 1997?" Here are a couple outlooks for the 1997 Bucco squad:

Mark Jareb's Preview
Mike Emeigh's Preview
Both of these authors wrote their previews early in spring training. I have edited their comments and placed them here with their permission.
From Mark Jareb (mij6t@AVERY.MED.VIRGINIA.EDU):
Toward the end of the '96 season, the Pirates finally (and wisely) decided to clean house and rebuild from the ground up. The trading frenzy started in August when top pitcher Denny Neagle was sent to the Braves for Jason Schmidt, Ron Wright, and Corey Pointer. The trading didn't end until late in the off-season when top hitter Jeff King was packaged in a deal with Jay Bell to Kansas City for 4 more prospects. Shortly after the Neagle trade, long-time manager Jim Leyland announced his decision to manage elsewhere. As more and more front office people talk, it's no coincedence that Bucs GM Cam Bonifay went from the most slothful trader in MLB to a trigger-happy jack when Leyland's departure became imminent. With Bonifay now having the power to go along with the name of General Manager, he traded 10 players, (all except one 28 or older), for 17 players of which only one was older 25 (Joe Randa, at the ripe age of 27). Bonifay clearly got quantity and youth, but the burning question is whether he got quality? The resounding answer is yes, though some of the key players acquired won't contribute at the MLB level until a couple of years down the road. The unknown factor in this whole equation is the new manager, Gene Lamont, a protege of Leyland's. Lamont appears committed to the rebuilding process, so expect most of the starters to be young. On the other hand, Lamont also seems to be a textbook manager so expect the bench to more populated with veterans.

Catcher: Jason Kendall, the starter, had an excellent rookie year at the plate, though he disappointed defensively (in terms of throwing runners out). He spent the offseason working on his throwing mechanics as well as trying to improve his power at the plate. A good 2-strike hitter, he moves from the 8 spot to 6th spot in the batting order. His backup is Keith Osik. Osik provides a solid bat off the bench and can play multiple positions. Angelo Encarnacion was sent to San Diego at the end of spring training along with Outfielder Trey Beamon. The only notable catcher in the Bucs minors is Lee Evans, their 3rd round pick in '96, who combines athleticism with gap power and patience at the plate. Glenn's note: keep an eye on Craig Wilson at Class A Lynchburg this year; he came over in the Blue Jays trade.

First Base: Mark Johnson has the job and is being counted on for power. His swing has large holes, though he was surprisingly effective most of last season. It is practically a foregone conclusion that he'll be platooned with prodigal son Kevin Young. Released by the Bucs at the end of spring training '96, Young can also backup 3B and OF. Both players are stop gaps until Ron Wright is ready. Arguably the best power hitting prospect in the minors, Wright needs more experience batting in the upper levels of the minors. In addition, if Wright is not added to the 40-man roster during '97 he won't need to be protected for the Novemeber 1997 expansion draft. Glenn's Note: behind Wright are DJ Boston, Shon Walker, and Garrett Long.

Second Base: Tony Womack is the starting 2B. Though strong defensively, he's never posted an OBP or SLG above league average in any season in his minor league career. His main competition for next year will be from Lou Collier and Brandon Cromer, both in AA in '96 and in Calgary this season. Cromer has shown decent power and good defense in his '96 season at AA. Dale Sweum is the backup utility infielder on the parent club; he has some offensive capabilities and adds a steady glove in the utility role.

Third Base: Joe Randa acquired in the King/Bell trade with KC will be the starter. He got the 3B starting job in KC in '96 primarily due to injuries and then he hit better than expected. Likely, he will surprise people again by hitting with more power in '97 and maintaining his '96 level of production. Waiting in the wings are Freddy Garcia, a Rule V draftee from '95, and Aramis Ramirez, ranked the #1 prospect in the NY-Penn league blending an impressive amount of power with a good batting eye. If Randa falters, Garcia could move up quickly from AAA. Ramirez starts the year in Class A Lynchburg.

Short Stop: The Bucs signed Kevin Elster as a one-year stopgap. Elster had a career year in '96, though it was more in line with his minor league performances in the late 80's rather than his other MLB seasons. His performance will drop but not as much as people think. Womack is his likely backup. Collier could take over in '98, though don't count out the Pirates best overall prospect Chad Hermansen. Hermansen starts '97 in AA and if he can improve on his defense, he'll legitimately compete for the SS job in '98.

Out Field: Al Martin and Jermain Allensworth will start in LF and CF, respectively. Martin is overrated in that he's a relatively poor defensive OF and can't hit LHP. He would be more productive if platooned but it probably won't happen. Allensworth won the starting CF job in the last half of '96. He's shown improvement offensively each year as a professional, which he needs to continue doing to become a decent leadoff hitter. The RF job was won in spring training by 20 year-old Jose Guillen. Guillen was the Class A Carolina League MVP last season and has perhaps the best outfield arm in baseball. Midre Cummings provides left-handed hitting back-up. Cummings has flopped in several very short trials at the Bucs outfield before; what little patience he has around the plate seems to get entirely thrown out the window when he faces MLB pitching. Rule V draftee Emil Brown is the 5th OF'er; he'll be a decent contributor off the bench as a right handed Pinch Hitter and defensive replacement. Trey Beamon was traded along with catcher Angelo Encarnacion at the end of spring training. Waiting in the minors is TJ Staton who showed a dramatic improvement in power and patience at the plate when jumping from low A to AA in '96. Staton will play at AAA and get called up if anyone is hurt.

Starting Pitchers: Jon Lieber and Jason Schmidt came into spring training as the only definites in the rotation. Esteban Loaiza and Francisco Cordova were likely as the 3rd and 4th starters. All are young and have shown flashes of being good MLB pitchers. Steve Cooke, returning after a 2 year injury won the 5th spot in the rotation with a strong spring. Cooke provides the only southpaw in the rotation to start the season. The Bucs sent Chris Peters, Ramon Morel, and Jose Silva to AAA to log some innings. Rich Loiselle competed for the rotation, but starts the season in the bullpen. Loiselle can be used as a spot starter if required. Loiselle had a few fairly effective September starts.

Relief Pitching: John Ericks is the closer while Marc Wilkins and Jeff Granger will be the RH and LH set up man, respectively. Dave Wainhouse (RHP), Matt Reubel (LHP), Ricardo Rincon (LHP) and Loiselle round out the bull pen.

Mark Jareb

Mike Emeigh (mwe@nomos.com) added this Pirate Preview:

I can't wait to be writing this next year, when I'll probably be talking about Chad Hermansen and Ron Wright and Jimmy Anderson and Kris Benson and TJ Staton - but for now, here's this year's alignment.

Catcher: Jason Kendall
Kendall, 22, made the jump from AA to major league starting catcher, and acquitted himself quite well, hitting .300/.372/.401. He took steps to deal with his two shortcomings in the off-season, working with Mike Piazza on strength and conditioning to add some pop to his bat and with Marc Hill on his throwing mechanics which led to a league-high 18 errors last year. Right now, IMO, only Piazza and Todd Hundley among NL catchers clearly rate ahead of Kendall.

1B: Mark Johnson, Kevin Young
Gene Lamont insists that Johnson, 29, will be the everyday 1B, and will get every opportunity to hit LHP. It's easy to see why he'd say this, because Johnson is about the only regular who's likely to hit as many as 20 HRs, and the Pirates seem to be fixated on their lack of HR power. However, Young, 27, absolutely destroyed LHP last season with Kansas City, and a Johnson/Young platoon would likely post an OBP close to .370 and a SLG close to .500. Expect Young to see more playing time against LHP as the season progresses (either at 1B or in the OF).

2B: Tony Womack
Womack, 27, offers speed and defense but very little else. He hit .300/.341/.387 at AAA Calgary, a hitter's park in a hitter's league.
In the minors we have waiting:

Brandon Cromer, 23, was acquired in the Merced/Garcia deal with Toronto. At AA Knoxville in 1996, he hit .277/.392/.440 while primarily playing at SS. He'd never done anything like this at lower levels, and if the improvement is real he's probably the guy who should be at 2B for the parent club.
Lou Collier, also 23, regressed in 1996. He hit .280/.355/.359 at AA Carolina; he'd shown more pop than that in the lower minors, but in his last two seasons he's not shown any of that. He's also been primarily a SS in the minors.
Either Cromer or Collier is likely to be a better player than Womack, but Womack's age and experience gained him the edge at the beginning of the season. I expect one of the other two to be here by mid-season.

SS: Kevin Elster
Elster, 32, was signed as a one-year stopgap player (the Bucs expect Chad Hermansen or Cromer/Collier to be ready full-time by 1998). His major league numbers prior to 1996 were .220/.284/.339, but in the first half of 1996 he showed a dramatic improvement, especially in power. He cooled off in the second half (or reverted to form, depending on your point of view) and finished at .252/.317/.462. Elster credits an offseason conditioning program for his power boost, and I'm sure that some of the jump is real. I'd expect something like .240/.300/.400 from Elster in 1997, which would not be all that far from where Jay Bell ended in 1996.

3B: Joe Randa
Randa, 27, acquired in the Bell/King deal with KC, was a pleasant surprise for the Royals in 1997, hitting .303/351/.433. Not that this is terribly great for a 3B, but it's better than the numbers Charlie Hayes put up for the Bucs in 1996 (.248/.301/.368). Randa's seasons don't appear to be flukish; he hit .275/.341/.438 at Omaha in 1995 and .275/.327/.409 there in 1994. He'll likely fall off some making the move to the NL, but he's still likely to produce more than Charlie Hayes did.

LF: Al Martin
Martin, 29, is a good complementary player, but as a bellweather of your offense, which he'll likely be in Pittsburgh this season, he's not worth a lot. Martin had what is arguably the best season of his career last season: .300/.354/.452. That's not good for a corner OF. Martin really can't handle LHP at all, and should be a platoon player, but the Bucs don't have that luxury. I expect him to be out there for close to 162 games this year.

CF: Jermaine Allensworth
Allensworth is 25, supposedly an outstanding defensive CF. There are still questions as to whether or not he'll hit consistently in the major leagues; he showed limited ability until he got to Calgary in mid-1995, and has basically one season there (2nd half of '95, first half of '96) where he hit the dickens out of the ball. After he was called up in July, he hit .262/.337/.380, primarily as a leadoff hitter. The OBP is less than desirable for a #1 hitter. He'll have to show more to stay in the lineup; right now it's an open question as to whether or not he will.

RF: Jose Guillen
At the start of spring training, Guillen, 21, had no shot at being on the major league roster, but he kept getting more and more playing time as the spring training days wore on. He needs to work on plate discipline, but he has a cannon for an arm and hit .322/.357/.498 at Class A, becoming the Carolina League MVP in the process.

Backing up: Midre Cummings, 25, shows limited plate discipline ("no" walks in 87 plate appearances with the Bucs in 1996, which gave him the distinction of having an OBP below his BA) and there have been questions about his desire and work habits. He ended up hitting .304/.341/.451 at AAA after being returned there.

Bench: Young, Keith Osik, Dale Sveum, Emil Brown, Cummings Young adds balance given the Pirates' number of LH-hitting starters who will need relief against tough LHP (Johnson, Martin). Osik can also play 3B and the OF. The Bucs are be vulnerable at SS with Sweum as the only backup IF. Rule V draftee Brown has impressed the Bucs' brain trust with his bat, and because he can play CF.

Analysis of offense:

The Bucs had one of the worst offenses in the league last season, until a hot September boosted them to third in the league in runs scored. The Bucs will be clearly better at 3B, clearly worse at 2B, and just about the same everywhere else (with a question mark in RF and on the bench). Overall I'd expect a slight decline from 1996. It's not going to be a good offense, anyway, at best middle of the pack.

The lineup is:

2B Womack
CF Allensworth
LF Martin
1B Johnson
SS Elster
C  Kendall
RF Guillen
3B Randa
P
Starting Pitching: Jon Lieber, Jason Schmidt, Francisco Cordova, Esteban Loaiza, Steve Cooke
Lieber, who turns 27 Opening Day, was handed the "staff ace" role when Denny Neagle was traded, and went on to justify his selection. In August and September, in 11 starts, he averaged 6 1/2 IP per start and went 5-1, 3.55. Schmidt, 24, was 2-2, 4.06 in 6 starts after coming over in the Neagle deal. Cordova, 25, was in the Pirates' pen at the start of 1996, became the closer when Dan Miceli failed, then was moved into the starting rotation in August and was 1-0, 3.86 in six starts (although he had stamina problems). Loaiza, 25, was 2-2, 2.75 in 6 starts in September, including a 6-hit shutout of the Giants. Cooke, 27, coming off two years of injuries, appears to have regained his arm strength that launched him to a 10-10 3.89 season as a rookie in 1993.

All of these guys have good stuff; none of these guys has much experience pitching at the major league level as a starter. The staff has more potential than last year's Neagle/Wagner/Ericks/D. Darwin/Z. Smith bunch, but is likely to take a few lumps at the major league level while learning to get hitters out. This could be a solid staff by August, though - and with the likely additions of Jimmy Anderson and Kris Benson in 1998 and several more good prospects at lower levels of the system now, could be one of the best in the league by 1999 if the prospects develop.

Bullpen: John Ericks, Jeff Granger, Marc Wilkins

Beyond the three guys mentioned above, the rest is a crapshoot. Ericks, who turns 30 in June, is the nominal closer. When placed in that role in August, he was excellent early on, but he struggled down the stretch. There are questions about his arm strength; he's had problems in the past and his ability to pitch several days in a row is in question. Granger, 25, acquired in the Bell/King deal, will be a LH-setup man, and could get a shot at the closer job if Granger falters. Wilkins, 26, was a pleasant surprise in 1996 as a middle reliever, and will probably continue in that role in 1997. Rich Loiselle, 25, acquired from Houston for Danny Darwin, pitched decently in 3 late-season starts, and went into spring training as the nominal fifth starter. Matt Ruebel, 27, is your classic soft-tossing left hander. Dave Wainhouse and Ricardo Rincon round out the bullpen.

Analysis of pitching:

You'd like to have at least one semi-veteran regular guy upon whom you can count to give you a good 6-7 inning effort every time out, but the Pirates don't have that luxury. The Bucs are going to stand or fall on the ability of their young starters to adjust to the rigors of every-fifth-day in the major leagues. There's a lot of upside here - but also some downside, too. The pitching overall will be better than it was last season by the end of the year, but it may take a while to get there.

Overall evaluation:

There were a lot of comments about the Bucs being "an AAA team" and "challengers to the '62 Mets" in the offseason. But an honest analysis (granted, through semi-rose-colored glasses, but still pretty honest, I think) suggests that the Bucs really aren't that badly off. The offense is not strong; there's no really good OBP guy who could be a good leadoff hitter and no power core at all. The pitching has the potential to be good, but has no one with much experience at all to lead the way.
For this year, the Pirates have set a public goal of 70 wins. They were 73-89 last season. If everything breaks right, they could match or exceed last season's record - but I think that something like 67-95 is more realistic. The Bucs won't threaten the '62 Mets - and they may not even be the worst team in the league (I think that distinction will probably belong to the Giants).

Mike Emeigh

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