Pirate 1998 Scouting Report

Last Updated 11 April 1998

This is the third year which I have worked with Mark Jareb (lshark@akula.com) on his thorough Scouting Report of the Pirates, and his detailed look at the top prospects in the farm system. His position-by- position analysis of the franchise is a highlight of the Scouting Report that shows depth or weaknesses in the Bucco farm system. Mark provides most of the research and offers his opinion on the potential of each Pirate farm hand. Mark started posting these reports to the Pirate e-mail list, but I thought they deserved a wider audience. I offered to edit them and post them to Glenn's Pirates Page. I have enjoyed working with Mark on these Scouting Reports, and I hope you enjoy reading them too.
Mark enjoys hearing from fans about his Scouting Reports. If you are a Pirate farm hand cruising the web, Mark would be happy to talk with you too. Mark Jareb is the author of the comments below. I provide the HTML code, editing, and web space. You can still find Mark's previous Scouting Reports here:
Mark Jareb's 1998 Pirate Scouting Report:
In picking the Pirates top 25 prospects, I think it is very difficult to rate batters vs. pitchers. I decided to arbitrarily pick the top 15 batters and the top 10 pitchers in the Pirate minor league organization (that's somewhat like the typical makeup of a 25-man roster). I have excluded any players with MLB experience from the list with the exception of a few who have only seen limited action at the major league level: Freddy Garcia, Abraham Nunez, Lou Collier, Emil Brown, Jose Silva, and Jeff Wallace. My criteria for rating players is based on trying to project the value of their MLB career. The links below lead to my detailed comments about each player.

Position Player Prospects:

  1. Chad Hermansen; 2B
  2. Aramis Ramirez; 3B
  3. Ron Wright; 1B
  4. Garrett Long; OF/1B
  5. Freddy Garcia; 3B
  6. Abraham Nunez; SS
  7. Craig Wilson; C
  8. Lou Collier; SS
  9. (tie) Emil Brown; OF
  10. Kevin Haverbusch; SS
  11. TJ Staton; OF
  12. Lee Evans; C
  13. Julian "Tike" Redman; OF
  14. Adrian Brown; OF
  15. Derrick Lankford; 1B
  16. Chance Sanford; 3B/2B
Pitching Prospects:
  1. Kris Benson; RHP
  2. Jose Silva; RHP
  3. Elvin Hernandez; RHP
  4. Jimmy Anderson; LHP
  5. Bronson Arroyo; RHP
  6. Paul Ah Yat; LHP
  7. Chris Combs; RHP
  8. Wilson Guzman; LHP
  9. Kris Lambert; LHP
  10. Jeff Wallace; LHP
    Honorable mention: these pitchers could have easily been put put in the bottom half of the top 10: Neal McDade, Jason Phillips, Brian O'Connor, Chris Corn, and Jeff Martin.
Mark Jareb's 1998 Position-by-Position Pirate Scouting Report
This is a position-by-position report on the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. It attempts to project the level that each player will be at in 1998 and identify the extent to which a player is a prospect. In addition, it attempts to identify which positions the Pirates have needs to fill and the various possibilities to address those needs. In evaluating batters, a major criterion will be age, as batters tend to peak at ages 27-28 and then decline. Another heavily discussed criterion will be the ability of the batter to take a walk; drawing walks tends to be a very stable ability (it doesn't vary much from year to year) and usually is the key factor between a poor On Base Percentage (OBP) and a good OBP. I'll harp a lot on OBP because I see that as the Pirates major offensive problem (compared to the league their OBP is relatively worse than their Slugging (SLG)).

Notes: when you see ###/###/### that stands for BA/OBP/SLG (or just OBP/SLG sometimes). The ages listed for players are how old they will be on July 1, 1998. The standard information provided for each player (where available) is as follows:
Age, birthdate mm/dd/yy; how acquired (Draft Round # and year, Free Agent, NonDrafted Free Agent, Draft & Follow), High School or College
Position, Bats-Throws, Height Weight

I'll list the players currently in the organization based on the highest level they played in 1997.

You can find current stats on Pirate farm hands (in season) at various web sites. You can find links to these sites in the Minor League section of Glenn's Pirates Page
Sean Forman provides another look at Pirate Prospects.

Prospects, Projects, and Suspects: An in-depth look at the Bucs top prospects.

Mike Emeigh writes a monthly Pirates article for On Line Drive. Here's Mike's forecast for the 1998 Pirates Squad.

In their late December 1997 issue (on sale through January 4), Baseball America lists the Pirates Top 10 Prospects. They are listed below. Baseball America also released its list of Top 100 prospects for 1998. The Pirates were well represented; they placed five players on the list. Only two teams had more - the Florida Marlins (8) and the Oakland Athletics (6). Three of the Pirates prospects ranked in the top 13 (that shows some potential star power!). Baseball America lists these Pirates in their Top 100 List: third baseman Aramis Ramirez (No. 5), right-handed pitcher Kris Benson (No. 7), second baseman Chad Hermansen (No. 13), shortstop Abraham Nunez (No. 65) and left-handed reliever Jeff Wallace (No. 90).
The future for this ball team is very bright.
Baseball America's Top Ten Pirate Prospects for 1998:
  1. Kris Benson, RHP
  2. Aramis Ramirez, Third Base
  3. Chad Hermansen, Second Base
  4. Jeff Wallace, LHP
  5. Abraham Nunez, Short Stop
  6. Ron Wright, First Base
  7. Bronson Arroyo, RHP
  8. Alex Hernandez, Outfield
  9. Jose Silva, RHP
  10. Lou Collier, Short Stop
    Rest of the Best
  11. Emil Brown, Outfield
  12. Jimmy Anderson, LHP
  13. Jason Phillips, RHP
  14. Tike Redman, Outfield
  15. Kris Lambert, LHP
While listing the best tools in the Pirates system, Baseball America came up with this list:
Finally, here is Baseball America's prediction for the 2001 Pirate Line Up. I may disagree in a couple places, but this list starts the discusion: 1996 Baseball America Prediction
1997 Baseball America Prediction
Baseball Weekly (by USA Today) also weighed in with their opinion on the Bucs' top prospects. In their mid-January edition (on sale thru 1/27) they listed these top Buc prospects.
Nearly Ready: Ron Wright, Freddy Garcia, Lou Collier, Abraham Nunez, Jeff Wallace, Jimmy Anderson.
Up and Coming: Lee Evans, Garrett Long, Tony Robinson, Aramis Ramirez, Chad Hermansen, Alex Hernandez, Tike Redman, Jose Pett, Elvin Hernandez, Kris Benson, Bronson Arroyo.
Sleepers: Carlos Rivera, TJ Staton, Charles Peterson, Shon Walker, Jose Silva, Matt Ryan, Joe Maskivish, Jason Phillips, Jeff Martin, Paul Ah Yat, Jeff Kelly.

In their Top 100 Names to watch in 1998, Baseball Weekly lists six Pirate farmhands among the 61 batting prospects mentioned. This was the most of any ML organization. Although the Pirate Prospects were in the lower half of the BW list, it is only reflective of the "anticipated impact" of these players on the 1998 season. The sheer number of players who can make an impact for the Bucs in '98 shows the depth of the franchise's minor league system.

An explanation of Mark's method:
One area where it gets dicey is trying to compare young prospects with little pro experience and high upside to more advanced prospects with lower upside. The more experienced the player, the more data I have to make a prediction, therefore the more confident I am in my projection. Conversely, for some young prospects (who typically have high upsides) I obviously have less data to work with, so I'm not as confident in my projections (i.e. my success rate in projecting prospects at lower levels is less than that of prospects at higher levels). So sometimes I rate someone with lower upside over a higher upside player simply because I'm more confident in the low upside player's projections. Other times, the young prospect's upside is just too great and I've convinced myself that the player's potential will be realized. Your mileage may vary.
Is there something here you like, that needs to be changed,
or would you like to see something that is not included?
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