Pirate 1999 Scouting Report

Last Updated 6 March 1999

Index: | Top Prospects | Position Analysis | Other Prospect Sites/Links | Magazine Predictions: Baseball America; Baseball Weekly |
This is the fourth year which I have worked with Mark Jareb (lshark@akula.com) on his thorough Scouting Report of the Pirates, and his detailed look at the top prospects in the farm system. His position-by- position analysis of the franchise is a highlight of the Scouting Report that shows depth or weaknesses in the Bucco farm system. Mark provides most of the research and offers his opinion on the potential of each Pirate farm hand. Mark started posting these reports to the Pirate e-mail list, but I thought they deserved a wider audience. I offered to edit them and post them to Glenn's Pirates Page. I have enjoyed working with Mark on these Scouting Reports, and I hope you enjoy reading them too.
Mark enjoys hearing from fans about his Scouting Reports. If you are a Pirate farm hand cruising the web, Mark would be happy to talk with you too. Mark Jareb is the author of the comments below. I provide the HTML code, editing, and web space. You can still find Mark's Scouting Reports from previous years still on the web: Plus, this year, Mark has added a page for each player that combines the previous Scouting Reports. For example, you can see Keith Osik's consolidated report on the web.
Top Prospects
In picking the Pirates top 25 prospects, I think it is very difficult to rate batters vs. pitchers. I decided to arbitrarily pick the top 15 batters and the top 10 pitchers in the Pirate minor league organization (that's somewhat like the typical makeup of a 25-man roster). I decided to limit the Prospect listing by the rules for Rookie status, but I made exceptions for Rule V drafted players. For example, Aramis Ramirez (due to his 1999 playing time) is not noted on the Prospect list, but Emil Brown (as a former Rule V pick) is included. My criteria for rating players is based on trying to project the value of their MLB career. The links below lead to my detailed comments about each player.

Position Player Prospects:

  1. Chad Hermansen; OF
  2. Warren Morris; 2B
  3. Emil Brown; OF
  4. Kevin Haverbusch; 3B
  5. Garrett Long; OF/1B
  6. Rico Washington; 3B
  7. Kory DeHaan; OF
  8. Jeff Patzke; 2B
  9. Abraham Nunez; SS
  10. Ron Wright; 1B
  11. Jovanny Sosa; OF
  12. JJ Davis; OF
  13. Craig Wilson; C
  14. Eddy Furniss; 1B
  15. Alex Hernandez; OF
    Honorable Mention: Jeremy Cotten 3B, Tike Redman OF, Derrick Lankford 1B
Pitching Prospects: (links to individual pitching reports will be provided soon).
  1. Kris Benson; RHP
  2. Jimmy Anderson; LHP
  3. Clint Johnston; LHP
  4. Jason Phillips; RHP
  5. Paul Ah Yat; LHP
  6. Sam McConnell; LHP
  7. Mike Gonzales; LHP
  8. Jeff Wallace; LHP
  9. Javier Martinez; RHP
  10. Brian O'Connor; LHP
    Honorable Mention: Carlos Alvarado RHP, Bronson Arroyo RHP, Chris Combs RHP, Jason Haynie LHP, Kris Lambert LHP, Neal McDade RHP, Kevin Pickford LHP
Position-by-Position Report
My annual Scouting Report on the Pittsburgh Pirates tries to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the organization and tries to show where the franchise is headed. The Pirates finished a disappointing last in the NL Central in 1998, ending the season on a down note going 5-25 in their last 30 games. Due to this September swoon, the front office has swerved somewhat from their original 5-year plan conceived in '96 that was based on a youth movement; this off season, the front office signed some additional veterans. This was despite the fact that the '98 team had 2 veterans in their mid 30's coming off the bench, one w/ playoff experience, and 6 other position players w/ experience as a starter, two w/ 5+ years in the majors. Perhaps more related to the poor '98 showing is that Pirate batters, as a team, were the 2nd lowest in pitches per plate appearance, 2nd highest in their ratio of ground outs to fly outs, and 2nd lowest in runs scored in the NL. In short, this is characteristic of a batting strategy that tries to maximize batting average at the expense of getting on base, but more importantly, getting good pitches in order to try and drive the ball. No team in the majors had fewer plate appearances while ahead in the count than the Pirates. This is why the sections on position players focuses heavily on plate discipline and hitting for power. The sections on pitching tends to focus more on the pitcher's tools rather than their performance. The Pirates have done pretty well with their pitching staff, and I think it's indicative of their emphasis on tools. The Pirates GM, Cam Bonifay, comes from a scouting background, and, like most scouts, his decisions have revolved around a players' tools and their highest ceiling. I don't think it's a coincedence that his decisions regarding pitchers have tended to do well, while those regarding batters have not been nearly as successful.
This report is largely a culmination of ideas and thoughts from the Pirates email list, and thus, the members of that list need to be acknowledged first and foremost. By no means do all the members of the list give their seal of approval on what's been written, yet all the participating members have shaped the content of this report (perhaps most by those with disagreements). Some individuals who need to be singled out for help with comments on specific players include Glenn Gearhard, John Stuart, Mike Emeigh, Bill Otterman, and Erik Johnson. Glenn deserves further acknowledgement foremost for his extensive and valuable editing as well as for providing the space for the report.
This position-by-position report on the Pittsburgh Pirates organization attempts to project the level that each player will be at in 1999 and identify the extent to which a player is a prospect. In addition, it attempts to identify which positions the Pirates have needs to fill and the various possibilities to address those needs.

Notes: when you see ###/###/### that stands for BA/OBP/SLG. The ages listed for players are how old they will be on July 1, 1999. The standard information provided for each player (where available) is as follows:
Age, birthdate mm/dd/yy; how acquired (Draft Round # and year, Free Agent, NonDrafted Free Agent, Draft & Follow), High School or College
Position, Bats-Throws, Height Weight

I'll list the players currently in the organization based generally on the highest level they played in 1998 (or where they spent most of the year or where they finished). I'll include winter league stastics also (when they are available).

Other Prospect Sites/Links
You can find current stats on Pirate farm hands (in season) at various web sites. You can find links to these sites in the Minor League section of Glenn's Pirates Page. USA Today, CNN, Nando, and Pirateball are all good resources for information.

Prospects, Projects, and Suspects: Dan Levine provides an in-depth look at the Bucs' top prospects.

Fastball also has a Road to the Majors page with prospects.

The Sporting News provides a Pirates 1999 Preview and a look at Five Top Pirate Prospects.
Sean Forman provides another look at Pirate Prospects.
In their early February 1999 issue (on sale through Feb 28), Baseball America lists the NL Central's Top 10 Prospects.
Baseball America's Top Ten Pirate Prospects for 1999:
  1. Chad Hermansen, Outfield
  2. Warren Morris, Second Base
  3. Kris Benson, RHP
  4. Abraham Nunez, Short Stop
  5. Jeff Wallace, LHP
  6. Kevin Haverbusch, Third Base
  7. JJ Davis, Outfield
  8. Alex Hernandez, Outfield
  9. Jeremy Cotten, Third Base
  10. Ron Wright, First Base
    Rest of the Best
  11. Clint Johnson, LHP
  12. Tike Redman, Outfield
  13. Kory DeHaan, Outfield
  14. Paul Ah Yat, LHP
  15. Garrett Long, First Base
While listing the best tools in the Pirates system, Baseball America came up with this list:
Finally, here is Baseball America's prediction for the 2002 Pirate Line Up. I may disagree in a couple places, but this list starts the discusion: 1996 Baseball America Prediction
1997 Baseball America Prediction
1998 Baseball America Prediction
Baseball Weekly (by USA Today) also weighed in with their opinion on the Bucs' top prospects. In their mid-January edition (on sale thru 1/26) they listed these top Buc prospects.
Nearly Ready: Kris Benson, Emil Brown, Chad Hermansen, Warren Morris, Abraham Nunez
Up and Coming: Kevin Haverbusch, Alex Hernandez, JJ Davis, Clint Johnston
Sleepers: Paul Ah Yat, Alex Pena, Jovanny Sosa
An explanation of Mark's method:
One area where it gets dicey is trying to compare young prospects with little pro experience and high upside to more advanced prospects with lower upside. The more experienced the player, the more data I have to make a prediction, therefore the more confident I am in my projection. Conversely, for some young prospects (who typically have high upsides) I obviously have less data to work with, so I'm not as confident in my projections (i.e. my success rate in projecting prospects at lower levels is less than that of prospects at higher levels). So sometimes I rate someone with lower upside over a higher upside player simply because I'm more confident in the low upside player's projections. Other times, the young prospect's upside is just too great and I've convinced myself that the player's potential will be realized. Your mileage may vary.
Is there something here you like, that needs to be changed,
or would you like to see something that is not included?
Send me an
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